A research team of Mekelle University and UGent says that conflict in Tigray will mean in that area of Tigray only 20-50% of the farmland will produce reasonable outputs – well below what is required to sustain the local population in a subsistence farming economy
A research team of Mekelle University and UGent have collected field data of 161 farmlands around Mekelle, which has allowed them to evaluate the status of cropping in part of the Tigray region of Ethiopia, by the end of August 2021.
They have observed that local farming communities are remarkably resilient, also in times of conflict and instability. Relying on indigenous knowledge and local practices, farmers have shifted to the production to crops that need minimal effort and resources. However, there have been very few lean crops planted (maize, potato), and they estimate that only 20-50% of the farmland will produce reasonable outputs, which is well below what is required to sustain the local population in a subsistence farming economy.
They say that they have no reason to believe that in other districts of Tigray, the situation would be significantly different, except for Western Tigray, where many more lands have been left fallow, due to ethnic cleansing of the population.
They say that the study tends to confirm OCHA’s statement on 2 September 2021 that “only 25% to 50% of the normal cereal production will be available this year as agricultural planting season has been missed in many parts of Tigray”.
See attached the full paper with findings – it will be submitted to a scientific journal soon. For the moment, it has been posted as a preprint on ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354385966_August_2021_status_of_cropping_in_the_wider_surroundings_of_Mekelle_Tigray_Ethiopia
